Probably Stolen drops you into the shoes of a pawnshop owner on a gritty cyberpunk space station. Every deal is a gamble, one wrong move and you’re either stacking Credits or deep in hot water. Your big goal? Scrape together enough cash to buy the shop from the Landlord before the rising rent straight-up eats you alive. Sounds simple until sketchy customers start dumping stolen goods and suspiciously cheap junk on your counter.
With the full game out now, this guide walks you through the nine starting scenarios, the best one for new players, trading tips, money-making tricks and the latest water purification changes.
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How Probably Stolen Works
You start with a storefront, a handful of goods and a rent deadline that already feels personal. Every day you open the shutters, deal with whatever weirdos walk in, buy low, sell high (or at least higher than you paid), manage inventory and try not to get scammed into oblivion.
Overnight you can scavenge the dumping grounds, visit special contacts, run machines and pray your power cells don’t die at the worst possible moment.
The long-term goal is straightforward: earn enough money and reputation to buy out your shop. Until then you’re just renting and the rent has a nasty habit of climbing.
Probably Stolen Starting Scenarios Explained
Probably Stolen offers nine starting scenarios, each with its own approach to running the shop. Some focus on ordinary trading, while others give you production equipment or push you toward riskier businesses. Your choice determines your starting setup, not the game’s difficulty setting.
| Starting scenario | Main gameplay focus | What to expect |
|---|---|---|
| Apprentice | General trading | A beginner-friendly start without a fixed specialty |
| Water Merchant | Water testing and purification | Sell treated water while managing quality and liability |
| Fence | Stolen goods and contraband | Black-market trading with Security risks |
| Gunsmith | Firearms and weapon modifications | Start with a Class 1 weapon permit and weapon stock |
| Chemist | Chemical production | Use laboratory equipment and chemical recipes |
| Hydroponic Farmer | Crop production | Grow crops using hydroponic equipment |
| Aquafarmer | Fish farming | Raise Tilapia using a recirculating aquaculture system |
| Rat Wrangler | Rat breeding | Raise rats and produce meat |
| Rock Bottom | Survival challenge | Begin with virtually nothing |
Best Starting Scenario for Beginners
Apprentice is the clear winner for your first run. It doesn’t throw you into the deep end with water purification or shady black-market deals. Instead, it lets you chill and learn the basics: buying stuff, inspecting it and flipping it for profit.
You start with extra Credits, a Storage Bay and a nice little stock of household goods and food. That breathing room is clutch while you figure out how the shop actually works.
Water Merchant is a good second pick if you wanna dive into production early. Save RockBottom for later runs though, starting with zero feels fun until that first rent payment hits and reality smacks you in the face.
Picking a scenario is only half the battle. You also get four difficulty settings. For your first go, stick with Apprentice on Cozy or Normal. Once you’re comfortable buying, checking and pricing stuff, then you can mess around with the specialized starts.
Quick note: Rock Bottom is a starting scenario, not a difficulty. You can pair it with the harder modes if you really want the game to make you earn every single Credit the hard way
Probably Stolen Water Merchant Guide
Water Merchant hands you a head start in the water game, testing gear, purification supplies, storage containers and a Bottle Printer. Instead of just reselling random junk, you can build a whole business around cleaning water and selling it at the right quality grade.
The golden rule? Know exactly what you’re selling. Use the Water Trading Manual and your testing equipment to check every batch before you mess with it.
How Water Trading Works
Test the water first, check quality and spot the contaminants. Treat it, filters or purifiers depending on what’s nasty.
- Test it again. Don’t just assume the machine fixed everything.
- Bottle and label it correctly. The label has to match the actual quality or you’re in trouble.
- Keep an eye on the market. Water shortages can be big money but don’t gamble your rent money chasing a better batch.
Hot tip from the 1.0.0.2 update: Getting into water production is way cheaper now. Moisture Farm dropped from 650 to 350 Credits, Water Filters went from 50 to 25. The Water Purifier got a full overhaul too, so old demo strategies might not hit the same.
How To Make Money in Probably Stolen
The golden rule is older than capitalism itself: buy low, sell high, never trust a deal that looks too good. But seriously, the game follows this rule.
Sell items with good margins. Food, medical supplies, materials, household goods, substances and weapons all have their days. Watch for demand spikes (weapon demand, medical shortage, household relief drives, etc.). Age wine when you can, older bottles sell for more.
Also, don’t forget to Inspect goods before buying. The magnifying glass and handbook are your best friends. Counterfeit cigarettes, fake Hemingway packs, damaged injectors and mislabeled water are everywhere.
One discrepancy is enough to confront the seller and force a lower price. Get it wrong and you lose reputation.
Side Income Sources
These may help you a lot:
- Scavenging the dumping grounds for scrap, meds, tools and the occasional jackpot.
- Appraisal services once you join the board (entry fee is worth it).
- Special contacts like Dr. Jackson (modules, machines, cards), Georgio (random weird finds and the occasional legendary deal) and the wine maker.
- Rat farming once the colony is stable, big rats become meat and profit.
- Selling to the right customer type (upper-level citizens pay premiums; lower-level buyers are volume).
- Once Vending Machines unlocked, they keep selling stuff overnight even after you close the shop. Great passive income once your regular trading is stable, just don’t empty your whole stock into them and leave yourself broke for rent day.
Probably Stolen Rent Explained
Rent is the silent killer in this game. On Mark Up (Normal), you start at 200 Credits with the first payment due on Day 7. The Landlord rolls around every seven days and the rent keeps climbing.
Check the Calendar so you always know when the next payment is due. Keep that rent money in a separate mental pile from whatever you’re planning to spend on machines or new stock.
Miss a payment after using up your Rent Grace and it’s game over. Also, some starting scenarios begin with higher rent, don’t assume every run has the same bills.
How To Buy Your Shop in Probably Stolen
Buying the place is the whole point. On Normal difficulty it starts at 12,000 Credits, but the price can creep up as your run goes on. Keep an eye on the Calendar for the current value and save up.
You can buy the deed from the Landlord during a rent visit when the option pops up. There’s also a mortgage path through the Loan Shark, but that just swaps rent stress for loan payments. Fall behind and you can still lose the shop.
Once you own it, the full release actually gives you a proper ending with a run summary, most profitable sale, days survived, the whole deal. Finally feels like you can finish the story instead of renting forever.
Probably Stolen Trading Guide
Trading is the main challenge in Probably Stolen. Learn it and the game will be more satisfying.
Buying
Inspect. Always. Compare the asking price to what you know the item is worth. Wholesale deals are often worth it if the goods are clean. Walk away from obvious scams even if the discount looks juicy.
Selling
Match the customer. Station engineers love modules and materials. Security types want weapons and ammo (but be careful). Upper-level buyers will pay more for quality. Lower-level buyers are volume and less picky. Put the right goods in the window or display case to attract the right people.
Haggling
You can push for better prices or offer discounts. Higher reputation makes people more willing to deal. Some customers will try to lowball you or slip in counterfeits, call them on it when you can.
How To Deal with Stolen Goods & Contraband
The game is literally called Probably Stolen for a reason. Stolen goods and contraband are common and profitable, until they aren’t.
Hide the spicy stuff in dedicated storage (smuggler’s bays is a good option). Selling to the right shady contacts is fine. Selling to the wrong person or leaving contraband in the open display, can trigger inspections, sting operations or reputation hits with security.
Reporting sketchy customers to Security can mess with your faction reputation, so think twice before snitching. There’s one nice change in the full release though: reporting Lou no longer tanks your Black Market rep. Small wins.
Treat illegal goods like radioactive cats: profitable if handled carefully, catastrophic if they get out.
Probably Stolen Factions and Reputation Explained
Different groups are watching. Security, the lower levels, the black market and various customer factions all track how you behave.
High reputation with a group makes them more generous, less likely to scam you and more willing to buy. Low reputation means higher prices, fewer deals and more trouble.
Maxing reputation with key groups is one of the strongest long-term plays. It doesn’t make you invincible, but it makes life a lot smoother.
Probably Stolen Customers Explained
You’ll meet station engineers, security contractors, scavengers, inventors, pharmacists, upper level elites, lower level buyers, wanted criminals and the occasional pure weirdo. Some are honest. Some are testing you. Some are actively trying to scam you or fence hot goods. A few are on the wanted list.
Don’t trust everyone. Check the wanted posters. And never assume the person offering you a great deal on medical injectors is doing you a favor.
The Game Machines and Crafting Guide
Machines are how you turn junk into money.
- Furnace: scrap and ore into ingots.
- Bottle printer: turn bulk water into sellable bottles (upgradable for larger sizes).
- Modules: efficiency, performance, quality, refinement. Slot them into machines for better output. Some degrade or have downsides.
- Fridge: chill or freeze water and other goods.
- Battery systems and chargers: everything runs on power. Dead batteries mean dead machines.
- Wine setup: ferment and age grapes into increasingly valuable bottles.
- Rat cages: breed, feed, cull, profit.
Power management is a constant puzzle. Efficiency modules and good battery habits keep the lights on without bankrupting you.
Probably Stolen Tips and Tricks
Here is the rest of the tips I learned so far. I hope they help you as well:
- Always leave a cash buffer for rent.
- Inspect every risky item. The magnifying glass exists for a reason.
- Watch the newspaper and market events, shortages and surpluses are free money if you’re prepared.
- Upgrade production slowly. A fancy machine you can’t afford to run is just expensive furniture.
- High reputation is better than almost any single item.
- Don’t ignore the dumping grounds, but don’t go every single night if it costs you customers.
- Age the good wine. Future-you will thank present-you.
- When in doubt, sell the thing. Dead inventory doesn’t pay rent.
The game doesn’t care about your feelings. It only cares whether you can keep the shutters open another day. Buy smart, sell smarter, never stop checking the fine print on those “genuine” Hemingway cigarettes.
