If you start Probably Stolen as a Chemist, the Cartel looks like a sweet deal on Day 1. You get protection and free supplies, and the Handler just wants some Dream Dust. Then the quota climbs every week, and the purity demand climbs with it. It’s basically a trap with a weekly paycheck. The first exit perk doesn’t free you either. It only starts the process. Here is how the Cartel works and how to leave it alive.
Spoiler Alert: This guide covers story and ending details. Proceed with caution!
What You’ll Read:
How the Probably Stolen Cartel Works
The Cartel only shows up if you pick the Chemist start. It’s an Advanced Start, so you skip the tutorial and begin with 300 Credits, 200 weekly rent, and Cartel Protection. But don’t be fooled. It’s a difficult start.
On Day 1, the Handler introduces the contract and gives you 3 Dream Caps and 1 Common Chemical Supplies pack. Your insurance gets disabled. From Day 8, he comes every Monday for Dream Dust, and you can’t dismiss him. Every settlement that isn’t fatal pays 150 base Credits plus fresh supplies. That’s the whole deal: Dream Dust goes out, Credits and Dream Caps come in.
Cartel Schedule: Days 1 to 8 and Beyond
After the Day 1 intro, the Cartel runs on a fixed calendar. Most of it is warm-up. The real pressure starts on Day 8.
| When | What happens |
|---|---|
| Day 2 | Security asks about the Cartel. If you report it, the Handler warns you, and you take a nominal -20 Cartel reputation. |
| Day 3 | A Dealer visit. |
| Every Thursday | The Handler checks in. You can ask for extra ingredients, which costs 12 Cartel reputation (6 after Reliable Chemist). |
| Every Monday from Day 8 | Dream Dust collection. |
Pro-Tip: Skip the report on Day 2. All it earns you is a warning and a -20 hit, so you start in the hole. I’d also skip Thursday requests early on, since that reputation matters more once you’re climbing toward the exit.
Dream Dust Quota by Week
Each week you settle, the quota goes up by 5 vials and 5 purity points. Purity stops rising at 70%, but the vial count has no end.
Collection eats the vials you hand over, so you can’t pile them. Production has to keep up every single week. Week one is easy. By Day 50 you’re feeding the Cartel 40 vials at 70% purity, and it still won’t stop asking for more. Yes. You’re basically on the Walter White path!
| Collection day | Vials | Required purity |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | 10 | 40% |
| 15 | 15 | 45% |
| 22 | 20 | 50% |
| 29 | 25 | 55% |
| 36 | 30 | 60% |
| 43 | 35 | 65% |
| 50 | 40 | 70% |
How the Cartel Checks Your Delivery
As I mentioned before, the Cartel only cares about the number of vials you deliver and how pure your product is. Here’s how it all works.
Vial Count
The Handler counts every Dream Dust item on your counters. One item is one vial, whatever’s inside it. Hit the quota, and you gain reputation equal to your total vial count. Surplus vials add to that total, but they get consumed with the rest. Fall short, and you lose 4 reputation per missing vial, though he still takes what you have. If you hand over nothing, there will be fatal consequences.
Average Purity
He averages the true purity of every vial. Labels are ignored, so relabeling won’t save a weak batch. Here’s what each average does, with R as that week’s demand:
| Average purity | Result |
|---|---|
| Above R + 10 | Bonus shrinks to about a quarter of the overshoot |
| R – 5 to R + 10 | You gain or lose the gap to R, and the purity reward passes |
| Above a quarter of R, up to R – 5 | You lose the gap; no purity reward |
| A quarter of R or lower | Fatal |
Pro-Tip: R + 10 is the sweet spot. Past it, extra-pure Dust is wasted on the Cartel, so save it for retail.
Cartel Delivery Example
This is my own math from the formula above, on Normal difficulty. Day 22 asks for 20 vials at 50%.
Good run: 22 vials at 58% average. That’s +22 for the count and +8 for purity, so +30.
Bad run: 18 vials at 52% average. That’s -8 for two missing vials and +2 for purity, so -6. You still get the 150 Credits and supplies.
I suggest aiming about 9 points over the demand to stay clear of the +10 line. Difficulty also changes the numbers. Cozy makes gains ×1.5 and losses ×0.5, while Challenge halves gains and doubles losses.
How to Make Dream Dust for the Cartel
Dream Dust is made in five steps, in the order below:
- Blend Dream Caps into mush.
- Add alcohol at 3 to 6 times the mush volume and heat it on the Heating Plate.
- Filter out the chunks with Kotton Fabric, then a finer filter.
- Run it through a powered Evaporator overnight.
- Select Dream Dust in the Chem Finisher. Each vial needs 2 mL.
Scan the mix with the Composition Spectrometer after heating and again after finishing. The extract is only part of each vial.
Finisher upgrades matter too. The machine adds 12% contamination with no modules and 0% with four. If you’re still figuring out which upgrades are worth using, our Probably Stolen modules guide covers the different types and how they work.
Pro-Tip: Since you’ll be running machines overnight, a PowerBloc can save you from constantly swapping Energy Cells. Just make sure it’s charging an eligible battery.
Temperature
The game manual says to heat between 40 and 60°C. But in my experience, it’s best to stay below 50°C to avoid ruining your product. To make a perfect Heisenberg-level batch, cycle the Heating Plate between Low and Off around 40-44°C.
Cutting Stock With Filler
The Cartel doesn’t need premium Dust. You can dilute your Cartel stock with dry filler (like Processed Nutrifruit starch or boiled-down Gutterflow) and keep the good batches for retail sales. Aim for about 9 points over the demand, so 78 to 79% once it hits 70%. I know that’s scamming, but come on, it’s the cartel!
Where to Get Extra Dream Dust
You have two ways to get extra Dream Dust: Call Ashish, or get weekly dust from Minor Shareholder.
Ashish: Order by Phone
Buy the Lower Levels Chemist referral from Joe Wild’s network first. It costs 250 base on Normal (375 on Hard, 500 on Challenge) and unlocks Ashish at 3319.
Your first call queues 8 free vials and starts a 4-day cooldown. After that, you can order 8 vials with a one-day queue, or 16 with a two-day queue once you’ve spent 400 Credits on paid orders. You have to accept the courier’s offer to actually buy, since the call alone isn’t a purchase. Orders get 20% off.
Note: Don’t report Ashish. Otherwise, his number stops answering.
Minor Shareholder: Weekly Dust
This costs 1,440 base (2,160 Hard, 2,880 Challenge) and needs the Lower Levels referral. You get 8 street-grade Dream Dust every Saturday morning, and your Ashish discount rises from 20% to 35%.
It’s pricey, but it’s the only source here that delivers without a phone call. Street grade is supplementary, so scan each vial’s actual purity before mixing it into a Cartel batch. Clear counter space before Saturday too. If the goods don’t fit, the game doesn’t replace them.
All Cartel Storyline Contacts
There are four contacts in this storyline. Selling to the Dealer does not affect your Cartel standing. Trading with the soldier gives triple reputation, and you can dismiss him. That’s the one retail sale that helps your Cartel standing, but it won’t replace the weekly handover.
| Contact | Role | When | What they do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cartel Handler | Your boss | Thursdays, plus Mondays from Day 8 | Collects the Dream Dust quota. You can’t dismiss him. |
| Dealer | Black Market buyer | Day 3, then Tuesdays and Fridays | Buys Narcotic goods. Budget is 200 Credits plus 4 per day. He haggles but refuses retail markup. |
| Ashish | Phone supplier | Whenever you call (3319) | Sells you Dream Dust. |
| Wounded Cartel Soldier | Medical customer | Days 9, 18 and 27 | Buys Medical items with a 150 Credit base budget. Haggling works. |
Cartel Perks and Stipend
Your Cartel reputation can reach -200 to +200. Along the way, it unlocks three perks and one death sentence.
| Reputation | Perk |
|---|---|
| +25 | Increased Stipend: weekly pay becomes 150 + 4 × your reputation |
| +50 | Reliable Chemist: Thursday ingredient requests cost 6 reputation instead of 12 |
| +100 | Authorized Exit: starts the exit process (covered below) |
| -100 | Forced Retirement: a hitman you can’t dismiss shows up at morning opening |
By my math, 50 reputation means a 350-Credit weekly payout. That’s the best reason to keep your deliveries clean. A strong week also earns a Chemical Equipment Module, but only if both your quantity and purity rewards pass. If you miss, you still get the 150 Credits, 3 Dream Caps, and a Common supply pack.
Difficulty matters here, too. On Hard, gains are ×0.75 and losses ×1.25, so your numbers may differ from mine.
How to Leave the Cartel
Hitting +100 doesn’t free you. It makes you eligible for Authorized Exit, and the Handler starts the process. After that, the bar rises with each eligible weekly talk: 125, 150, 175, then 200. That’s four deferrals, and the fifth qualifying conversation is the real release.
Count conversations, not weeks since you started. Your deliveries keep coming in the meantime. The final threshold of 200 is also the reputation cap, so you need to be maxed out.
The final dialogue removes the Cartel faction and introduces insurance. You still get the final supplies and stipend. Watch your Black Market standing too. Uninsurable status starts at -60 and can block insurance on its own.
Getting out of the Cartel doesn’t mean you’ve finished the game, though. You’ll still need to buy the store if you’re working toward that goal.
What Happens If You Fail
A bad delivery means failure with the cartel. And if you do enough of that, you will be forced to retire, and not in a good way!
Fatal Deliveries
Two things count as fatal on collection day. One is handing over nothing at all. The other is an average purity at or below a quarter of the demand. That’s 10% or lower on Day 8 and 17% or lower on Day 50. Small shortfalls aren’t fatal, so even a bad week survives. Don’t walk in empty-handed, though.
Forced Retirement
If your Cartel reputation reaches -100, a hitman shows up at morning opening. You can’t dismiss him. Losses stack, and they get worse on harder difficulties (×2 on Challenge).
This is a losing ending. The Cartel decides you’re no longer useful and removes you from the business. That sounds a lot like Authorized Exit, but they’re opposites. One is a negotiated release; the other is a hit.
